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Where are all these materials going?

This question has been repeated a number of times over the last eight months across the US and the world due to the severe lack of specific high-performance fibers and systems. It was not hard to predict that high PE performance fibers and Unidirectional (UD) systems demand were on the rise; these systems follow a typical cycle parallel to the Defense and Global Security industry. These cycles are well documented and consequently predictable. What was not predictable, however, was the unusual and sudden sharp increase of interest/demand that we are experiencing, translating into a material shortage. This brings us back to the above question - …. “where are all these materials going?”

Let’s take a few steps back and review the arguments/explanations we have heard in relationship to this question. One of the most popular, centers or relies on the implications of “Where is this world heading?” The uncertainty of the Middle East; The re-positioning of Latin America; Europe with its own unity uncertainty; Russia on an opportunistic mode due to the current (or lack of for some people) US administration global leadership; China expansionism effort across the world - even in the United States’ own backyard. These factors are brought up every time as a part of the answer to the lack of material question. But they are only a part of the real tangible explanation implying that most of the material demand is due to current world events and the defense industry / governments adjusting for possible future events. Some, perhaps, but it will not suffice to explain or justify the severe lack of material. There is more….

UHMWPE fibers (i.e. DSM’s Dyneema, Honeywell’s Spectra and the various Chinese PE fibers manufacturers) are already over 35 years old. The belief that this fiber is not anymore, a “new fiber” is not totally accurate as the ultimate potential of PE fibers has not been reached yet – on the contrary, it has continued to evolve along the years (e.g. the ultimate strength and modulus have not been reached…this requires higher drawing – on top of these additives, colors, etc. are starting to come as well). This PE fiber renewal will continue for the foreseeable future. The result is new and improved low denier PE fibers - with superior strength coming to the market periodically for the past 10 years.

As opposite to aramids, UHMWPE fibers have the capability to “re-condition” themselves allowing to design better products. This implies, not only enhanced UD systems, but also better nets, better ropes, better woven products. The renewed strength of the fiber allows each industry to bring more applications across the board.

There are many examples of this trend in the defense market- one just needs to look into the sharp drop of areal density (AD) in armor systems in the last 3 years. What the industry needs to understand is that every time these fiber improvements occur / are introduced, (that is fiber high strength / high performance) the fiber production efficiency is reduced. In other words, the fiber strength increments are indirectly proportional to the fiber manufacturing efficiency / capacity - the more we get from the fiber, the less overall production capacity will result. So as the defense armor market shifts toward these new “super” fibers - the fiber product availability suffers

Does this “shift” explain the “where are all these materials going” question? Yes, if we combine with all other factors briefly discussed before and in combination with the natural growth.

These new fibers have opened new applications within the armor and industrial programs, bringing about new lighter, thinner and more flexible armor systems. In other words, new products in new applications that 5 years ago were unthinkable. The demand within the armor market as well as the industrial applications has increased as the UHMWPE fibers become more affordable (base line products) and higher performance occurs with the new systems.

As this trend of changed fibers continues, the industry needs to start reformatting the question. The question one should be addressing is “how can we use these new materials beyond the traditional direct fiber replacement model?” Here is where the opportunity for growth, leadership and innovation stands… aggressive emerging companies will clearly see this.

We are already witnessing the beginning of this trend – new smaller companies are adopting – inventing processing modifications, creating new solutions that allow them to take business from traditional armor companies. The opportunity to look beyond the horizon is already here and has passed many on while they were asking the same old question and doing the same old thing. Instead of “Where is the volume going, how do we maximize value?”